{"id":573,"date":"2008-06-02T22:14:40","date_gmt":"2008-06-02T21:14:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.lmae.net\/?p=573"},"modified":"2008-06-02T22:14:40","modified_gmt":"2008-06-02T21:14:40","slug":"3-generations-plus-tard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lmae.net\/?p=573","title":{"rendered":"3 g\u00e9n\u00e9rations plus tard"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans 30 ans, le Royaume-Uni sera une nation islamique. Oh, peut-\u00eatre pas au sens iranien, saoudien ou lybien du terme, mais qui voudrait parier l\u00e0-dessus ? Pas moi en tout cas. Mais dans 30 ans, ce que l’Europe ne sera s\u00fbrement pas, c’est au m\u00eame niveau de vie que les Etats-Unis. Pour \u00e7a, il faudrait patienter 75 ans avec un diff\u00e9rentiel de croissance 0.5 point chaque ann\u00e9e en faveur de l’Europe<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The Association of European Chambers of Commerce in Brussels warned that the transatlantic gap had widened yet further in the past five years by all key measures, despite the pledge by EU leaders at the 2000 Lisbon summit to transform Europe into the world’s \u00ab\u00a0most dynamic knowledge-based economy\u00a0\u00bb by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n

The EU-wide umbrella group, known asEurochambres said the EU’s overall employment rate was still stuck at levels attained by the United States in 1978, chiefly due to an incentive structure that discourages women from working and prompts early retirement by those in their fifties.<\/p>\n

It found that the European Union’s research and development levels were achieved by America as long ago as 1979, while the lag time on per capita income is 18 years.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0It will take the EU until 2072 to reach US levels of income per capita, and then only if the EU income growth exceeds that of the US by 0.5pc,\u00a0\u00bb the study said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Comme le diff\u00e9rentiel de croissance est en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral dans l’autre sens et de l’ordre d’un ou deux points les \u00ab\u00a0mauvaises\u00a0\u00bb ann\u00e9es (3 \u00e0 4% aux USA, 1 \u00e0 2% en Europe), dans 75 ans le plus probable est que la France et les autres seront loins derri\u00e8re la Chine, avec une population sous-qualifi\u00e9e, largement musulmane (avec les risques que cela entra\u00eene, cf la situation anglaise)… En passant de France au Canada, je vais faire un bond de presque 20 ans dans le futur question niveau de vie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dans 30 ans, le Royaume-Uni sera une nation islamique. Oh, peut-\u00eatre pas au sens iranien, saoudien ou lybien du terme, mais qui voudrait parier l\u00e0-dessus ? Pas moi en tout cas. Mais dans 30 ans, ce que l’Europe ne sera …<\/p>\n

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