dimanche 5 juillet 2015
Once Greeks had chosen a communist government over a socialist one (Tsirpas over Papandreou), the endgame was clear: default. Debt levels are just too high, and Greece as a whole is not productive enough and worse, not willing to produce more anyway to pay off its debts. Basically, the money printing by the ECB just went to Greeks through some government programs, a cut for the bankers etc. None went to actually fund any kind of project to fuel real production. You know, like building USEFUL things, buying machines, a new hotel, or anything of the kind.
So, what now? Well, default of course. But then, is there some hope? Well, to understand how Greece put itself where it is, let’s go back a few centuries, with the Ottoman Empire rule over Greece:
This period of Ottoman rule had a profound impact in Greek society, as new elites emerged. The Greek land-owning aristocracy that traditionally dominated the Byzantine Empire suffered a tragic fate, and was almost completely destroyed. The new leading class in Ottoman Greece were the prokritoi (πρόκριτοι in Greek) called kocabaşis by the Ottomans. The prokritoi were essentially bureaucrats and tax collectors, and gained a negative reputation for corruption and nepotism.
Yup, that’s from wikipedia. Their elite has been bureaucrats and tax collectors. You now know why their favourite sport is tax evasion. In recent times, Greeks repeatedly made clear that they want their cake and eat it too. They want the others to pay for their swimming pools, retirement and healthcare. They’ve been brainwashed and will NOT choose the only course that could get them out of the hole they themselves dug. Nope, they’re going to double down. They’ll print money probably, which will devaluate more or less rapidly. They’ll blame speculators for that, capitalists, entrepreneurs, bankers. Then supermarkets shelves will become empty. And they’ll again blame speculators, jews, and germans. And they’ll impose price controls over food, toilet paper and some other items. Then the infrastructure will start crumbling, subway lines won’t run anymore, because they won’t have the cash to pay for parts. And they’ll blame somebody else again.
Basically, Greece is now the first failed European state. It’s becoming Argentina-bis.
(and that’s another reason I moved to Canada from France: France will follow in less than a decade)